TRIBAL COUNCIL (UPDATED, READ) <--

[tuxkamen]

OK, new thread.

From what I see here, it seems like some people are either following a different agenda--which is fine--or were not reading my verbal spew about tactics for voting.

My sole goal here is to make a secure chance for our Tribe to have the eventual winner and eliminate the primary threat to that. In case you are pursuing other options, that would be the people who have the immunity idol on the other side and can game your votes.

[tuxkamen]

Also, if you don't trust me for whatever reason, vote me off--but at least get that idol disposed of first. I like to think my approach is most likely to succeed, but only while we have numbers.

[skid]

So I'm all for the whole "let's vote the maltans out" strategy. What's the final plan?

[tuxkamen]

Jun 2, 2008 17:04:23 GMT -5 skid said:

So I'm all for the whole "let's vote the maltans out" strategy. What's the final plan?

First point: Do not vote our people off to exile.

Havana Roster:

(Bonos)
El Skid
Grundlterror
Fembot
Romantic Undead
Tuxkamen

(Maltans)
DevoutlyApathetic <- probably has idol
Blarney <- may have idol
Plutonium <- unlikely to have idol

If we're going with this plan:

First: Don't send our own people to exile. That is not helpful.

Second: Most likely possibility is that either DA or Blarney has the idol and they will pass it to each other dependent on their guess for who is the target.

Third: We want that idol used up in any case.

Note that if the vote winner used the idol, all those votes are null, and their possible 2- or 3-vote bloc could take over the win. On the positive side, the idol is then gone, but numbers matter in this phase.

Also note that if any of you are working this with them, this plan is useless. But I might as well disclaim it now. I'm hoping you want to go for final five guaranteed versus trying to win against a faction that can screw you quite easily with double-immunity later on a lucky puzzle guess.

The safest, but least Bono-loyal, thing to do is to vote Plutonium off tonight, because he is the least likely to have the idol. Three or four people would vote him, one or two would vote for DA or Blarney, and they would vote as they wanted--probably 2-1 or 3-0 split.

This opens up a coinflip possibility, and we can't confirm this because RU is exiled. So the best thing to do, unfortunately, is to just take the chance on Plutonium (or the 60/40 shot on DA/Blarney) and vote him off. If he has the idol you know that shenanigans are going on on this side.

The riskier approach that is nicer to Plut is to go ahead and try for the voteoff of DA or Blarney. I currently think it's 60/40 that DA has the idol, but maybe Fembot can opine about whether DA found it before Blarney started searching. Whichever one we try to nail, if they idol-block, we get that out of the way and the next day we *unanimously* vote for one of them that does not have immunity from the challenge (because it will be 4 on 3 with no immunity).

DA, Blarney, and Plutonium are all good puzzle-solvers if they try (seriously, WTF yesterday?). You do *not* want them to come close to a numbers advantage, and by no means do you want them keeping that idol more than another day or two.

[tuxkamen]

OK, here are the choices:

1) Vote Plutonium tonight, vote one of DA or Blarney tomorrow, repeat if we hit the idol.
2) Vote Blarney tonight, if we hit the idol, do it again tomorrow with 4-3 vote.
3) Vote DA (I do not recommend this, it's most likely he has the idol).

1) is safer. 2) gets faster results but we MUST be united because the votecount is dangerous.

Which approach do you guys want?

[skid]

First off, apologies for voting for our team member. I was thinking that since they have the idol, it wouldn't be relevant who ended up exiled, and it'd look a lot less like we were all working together if we didn't all vote for the same target, or even along tribal lines... I guess I could have PMd everyone, but it was really busy at work, and I only remembered the vote in the last hour or so.

So that aside, here is my thinking:

- If the idol is used, it is used blind- they won't know who the vote winner is previous to this decision (unless someone here tells them). We want to either a) use up the idol tonight, or b) vote out the person holding the idol if they don't use it.

So I think personally they'll use it tonight- why not?

Maybe we all vote for Blarney as neither the highest nor the lowest odds of having it, and let our dear voted out comrade vote as he wishes?

[skid]

As a quote from the OPs:

Hidden Immunity Idol

The hidden immunity idol protects the wearer from being voted off the island. All votes cast against this person are null and void and the person removed from the tribe is determined by the remaining votes. You may trade this idol to anyone in your tribe, just make sure to CC me in the trade.
In order to use the idol, you must send me a PM saying that you would like to use the idol tonight before 9 PM EST on that given night. You will lose the idol even if you were in no danger of being eliminated, so make sure to use it wisely.

So even assuming they use it, there's only a 1 in 3 chance that we hit the person with the idol. Yeah, I totally say we just all pick someone and vote them- the only way they can reasonably expect to succeed using the idol is if there's someone here who tells them who to use it on... And I give you my word that I won't do such a thing.

[tuxkamen]

Okay, then let's just go with breaking up the possible idol-holders first.

Vote MrBlarney tonight.

[fembot]

Jun 2, 2008 17:37:34 GMT -5 tuxkamen said:

I currently think it's 60/40 that DA has the idol, but maybe Fembot can opine about whether DA found it before Blarney started searching.

He hadn't found it yet when the shuffle happened. It's a crapshoot as to if he got it or not.

[tuxkamen]

They *definitely* have it. When I tried to pick it up, the idol was not there. So the question is when they switched searchers and whether he'll activate it tonight.

[tuxkamen]

SECOND TRIBAL COUNCIL:

Boo. The worst possible outcome is having Plutonium with immunity. He can give up immunity to DA, or let DA burn the idol. Either way, they will send two votes at us.

Unfortunately, we need to force them to use the idol tonight if they still have it--so that means we vote DA--but we also need to expect an incoming vote on our side (likely me or RU if the votes yesterday meant anything). I've been debating whether we should try to split our votes 3-2 or not, risking a 0-2(us)-2(them) situation, but it only works when everyone votes. I've also been considering contacting Plutonium to ask him whether the idol has been used yet (and whether he wants to split his vote or not). They know we have a bloc now, so they will probably prearrange votes together.

[tuxkamen]

Let's vote for DA tonight. Confirm it here if you do.

We can't really control their vote at all, but we force them to use the idol tonight if they're going to. We will take that hit--probably I will, actually--and tomorrow you guys can mop them up. Trust me, by the way--you really want to mop them up. Both DA and Plut are good with puzzles and can hold on to immunity until the end. So whichever one does *not* have immunity on the following day, vote the other off, and clear them out.

[tuxkamen]

Note: Someone asked me the question, so: Yes, you can vote for the person on Exile Island. Just like in the real game, they 'come back' before council.

[skid]

I've voted DA.

[tuxkamen]

Wow! Good job, guys.

DA didn't use it, and I have no idea why.